Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Global growth in the first half of 2016 was slower than the Bank had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although the Bank continues to expect it to strengthen gradually in the second half of this year. The US economy was weaker than expected in the second quarter, notably reflecting a contraction in business and residential investment. While a healthy labour market and solid consumption should remain supportive of growth in the rest of the year, the outlook for business investment has become less certain. Meanwhile, global financial conditions have become even more accommodative since July. 

While Canada’s economy shrank in the second quarter, the Bank still projects a substantial rebound in the second half of this year. Second-quarter GDP was pulled down by the Alberta wildfires in May and by a drop in exports that was larger and more broad-based than expected. Exports disappointed even after accounting for weaker business and residential investment in the United States, adjustments in the resource sector, and cutbacks in auto production. The economy is expected to rebound in the third quarter as oil production recovers, rebuilding commences in Alberta, and consumer spending gets an additional lift from Canada Child Benefit payments. As federal infrastructure spending starts to have more impact, growth in the fourth quarter is projected to remain above potential. While the strength in exports during July was encouraging, the ground lost over previous months raises the possibility that the profile for economic activity will be somewhat lower than anticipated in July.  

Inflation is roughly in line with the Bank’s expectations.  Total CPI inflation is below the 2 per cent target, mainly because of the temporary effects of lower consumer energy prices. Measures of core inflation remain around 2 per cent, reflecting offsetting effects of excess capacity and past exchange rate depreciation.

On balance, risks to the profile for inflation have tilted somewhat to the downside since July. At the same time, while there are preliminary signs of a possible moderation in the Vancouver housing market, financial vulnerabilities associated with household imbalances remain elevated and continue to rise. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Provided by the Bank of Canada. 

Sales activity continues to slow down for the Fraser Valley in August

SURREY, BC – While sales in August remained above the ten-year average for the month historically, the number of transactions processed in the Fraser Valley continued to decrease following this year’s bustling spring.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,694 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August, a decrease of 2.3 per cent compared to the 1,734 sales in August 2015, and a 13.7 per cent decrease compared to the 1,962 transactions processed in July 2016.

“The numbers here aren’t alarming; they’re expected, and what we’re used to seeing around this time. Homebuyers should be encouraged that sales have slowed, giving inventory a chance to build back up and competition within the market to cool down,” said Board President Charles Wiebe.

The Board received 2,840 new listings in August, an increase of 15.6 per cent compared to August of last year, and a 12 per cent decrease from July 2016. The total active inventory for August was 6,102, down 17.6 per cent from last year’s 7,407 active listings but up 1.5 per cent from July.

“With sales activity moderating to more normal levels, we’re beginning to see prices follow-suit, and even drop for certain housing types in some of ourcommunities. Regardless, this is still a challenging and volatile market. Talk to your REALTOR® who can help you understand what’s happening right now and what you can realistically achieve as a seller or buyer.”

Across Fraser Valley, the average number of days to sell a single family detached home in August 2016 was 20 days, compared to 32 days in August 2015.

The MLS® HPI benchmark price of a Fraser Valley single family detached home in August was $888,600, an increase of 41.2 per cent compared to August 2015 when it was $629,400.

In August, the benchmark price of townhouses was $418,400, an increase of 36.4 per cent compared to $306,700 in August of 2015. The benchmark price of apartments also increased year-over-year by 29.7 per cent, going from $191,900 in August 2015 to $248,800 in August 2016.

Fraser Valley housing market simmers in July

SURREY, BC – Sales on the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) remained strong in July – however, for the first time this year, monthly sales did not break a historical record for our region.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,962 sales of all property types on its MLS® in July, a decrease of 10.2 per cent compared to the 2,184 sales in July 2015, and a 31.5 per cent drop compared to the 2,864 transactions processed in June 2016.

“A slowing down in activity is expected during the summer. While it may seem drastic or alarming when compared to months prior, this easing off is welcome as we get further into the year – the pace of the market slows, and inventory has a chance to catch up,” said Board President Charles Wiebe.

The Board received 3,226 new listings in July, an increase of 14.6 per cent compared to July of last year, and a 12.9 per cent decrease from June 2016. The total active inventory for July was 6,012, down 21.7 per cent from last year’s 7,681 active listings at this time.

“This is a good thing for our market, and buyers especially. Additional inventory will help drive us towards a more balanced environment for consumers and remove some of the upward pressure on prices we’ve been seeing.”

Across Fraser Valley, the average number of days to sell a single family detached home in July 2016 was 18 days, compared to 33 days in July 2015.

The MLS® HPI benchmark price of a Fraser Valley single family detached home in July was $881,400, an increase of 41.9 per cent compared to July 2015 when it was $621,100.

In July, the benchmark price of townhouses was $408,200, an increase of 33.9 per cent compared to $304,900 in July 2015. The benchmark price of apartments also increased year-over-year by 24.9 per cent, going from $192,700 in July 2015 to $240,600 in July 2016.

Stats provided by the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. For a full package click here:
http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package201607.pdf

For Immediate Release: July 5, 2016

Fraser Valley housing market remains hectic

SURREY, BC – Consistent with the preceding two months, June saw a record-setting number of sales for the month historically, but continued easing off since this year’s sales peak in March.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 2,864 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in June, an increase of 18.7 per cent compared to June 2015. The previous record for sales processed in a June was set in 2005 at 2,517. However, when compared to May 2016, sales dipped 1.5 per cent.

With 1,281 sales of single family detached homes, demand for greater space and land remained consistent. However, nearly matching that was the combined total of June’s 656 townhome sales and 604 apartment sales, a rare feat for the Fraser Valley region.

“Demand for Fraser Valley homes grips the market, tightly. Still, we are seeing a slight leveling-off that while not drastic, is giving both buyers and sellers a bit more room to maneuver,” said Charles Wiebe, President of the Board.

The Board received 3,705 new listings in June, an increase of 11.7 per cent compared to June of last year, and a 0.8 per cent increase from May 2016. The total active inventory for June was 5,612, down 30.8 per cent from last year’s 8,105 active listings at this time.

Across Fraser Valley, the average number of days to sell a single family detached home in June 2016 was 17 days, compared to 35 days in June 2015.

"Simply put, to meet demand, we need even more listings. More than half of our active inventory consists of new listings that came on to the MLS® in June; our market is truly in the hands of hopeful sellers,” added Wiebe.

“If you're a struggling buyer, or someone thinking of selling but on-the-fence, talk to a REALTOR® and find your best path through this complex environment.”

The MLS® HPI benchmark price of a Fraser Valley single family detached home in June was $861,600, an increase of 41.3 per cent compared to June 2015 when it was $609,900.

In June, the benchmark price of townhouses was $387,100, an increase of 27.9 per cent compared to $302,600 in June 2015. The benchmark price of apartments also increased year-over-year by 20.8 per cent, going from $191,900 in June 2015 to $231,900 in June 2016.

For Immediate Release: June 2, 2016

DEMAND IN THE FRASER VALLEY EXTENDS TO TOWNHOMES AND APARTMENTS

SURREY, BC – Consumer demand for real estate in the Fraser Valley continued through May, with overall sales once again reaching record-breaking numbers for the month historically.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 2,911 sales on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May, an increase of 47.8 per cent compared to May 2015. The previous record for sales processed in a May was set in 2006 at 2,245. However, sales dropped two per cent when compared to April 2016, continuing a slight trend of easing off since sales peaked this spring at 3,006 sales in March.

Of the 2,911 sales processed in May, 615 were townhouses and 557 were apartments, representing a significant portion of May’s market activity and a large increase when compared to May 2015. Townhome transactions increased 56.1 per cent when compared to last year, and apartments reached even higher levels seeing a 112.6 per cent gain.

Charles Wiebe, President of the Board, said of this month’s market data, “Demand is tremendous, still, for detached homes in our region, but it’s encouraging to see that the upward pace of that demand is leveling off.

"However, we’re also seeing the ripple effects as consumers are looking to townhomes and apartments in record numbers. This year, so far, is the busiest those markets have ever been.”

The Board received 3,674 new listings in May, an increase of 22.9 per cent compared to May of last year, and a 6.8 per cent decrease from April 2016. The total active inventory for May was 5,752, down 32.4 per cent from last year’s 8,512 active listings.

Across Fraser Valley, the average number of days to sell a single family detached home in May 2016 was 16 days, compared to 31 days in May 2015.

The MLS® HPI benchmark price of a Fraser Valley single family detached home in May was $834,200, an increase of 38.3 per cent compared to May 2015 when it was $603,100.

In May, the benchmark price of townhouses was $365,000, an increase of 20.4 per cent compared to $303,100 in May 2015. The benchmark price of apartments also increased year-over-year by 17 per cent, going from $192,500 in May 2015 to $225,200 in May 2016.

Stats provided by the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. For a full package click here:
http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package%20201605.pdf

The global economy is evolving largely as the Bank projected in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, despite weakness in the first quarter, a number of indicators, including employment, point to a return to solid growth in 2016. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with ongoing geopolitical factors contributing to fragile market sentiment. Oil prices are higher, in part because of short-term supply disruptions.

In Canada, the economy’s structural adjustment to the oil price shock continues, but is proving to be uneven. Growth in the first quarter of 2016 appears to be in line with the Bank’s April projection, although business investment and intentions remain disappointing. The second quarter will be much weaker than predicted because of the devastating Alberta wildfires. The Bank’s preliminary assessment is that fire-related destruction and the associated halt to oil production will cut about 1 1/4 percentage points off real GDP growth in the second quarter. The economy is expected to rebound in the third quarter, as oil production resumes and reconstruction begins. While the Canadian dollar has been fluctuating in response to shifting expectations of US monetary policy and higher oil prices, it is now close to the level assumed in April.

Inflation is roughly in line with the Bank’s expectations. Total CPI inflation has risen recently, largely due to movements in gasoline prices, but remains slightly below the 2 per cent target. Measures of core inflation remain close to 2 per cent, reflecting the offsetting influences of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity.

Canada’s housing market continues to display strong regional divergences, reinforced by the complex adjustment underway in the economy. In this context, household vulnerabilities have moved higher. Meanwhile, the risks to the Bank’s inflation projection remain roughly balanced. Therefore, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Provided by the Bank of Canada. For a full meadia release click here: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/05/fad-press-release-2016-05-25/

Four-for-four in record-setting months for Fraser Valley real estate

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Growth in the global economy is expected to strengthen gradually from about 3 per cent in 2016 to 3 1/2 per cent in 2017-18, a weaker outlook than the Bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). After a slow start to 2016, the US economy is expected to regain momentum, but with a lower profile and a composition that is less favourable for Canadian exports. Financial conditions have improved, partly in response to expectations of more accommodative monetary policy in some major economies.

Prices of oil and other commodities are off their earlier lows and slightly above levels assumed by the Bank in January, but remain well below historical averages. Nonetheless, the Bank expects deeper cuts to investment in Canada’s energy sector than were forecast in January. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has firmed, reflecting shifting expectations for monetary policy in Canada and the United States, as well as recent increases in commodity prices.

The Canadian economy’s complex structural adjustment to the oil price shock is ongoing and will dampen growth throughout the Bank’s projection horizon. First-quarter GDP growth appears to have been unexpectedly strong, but some of that strength is due to temporary factors and is likely to reverse in the second quarter. Still, it does appear that the positive forces at work in the economy are starting to outweigh those that are negative. Non-resource exports are expected to strengthen, but their profile is weaker than previously projected, in part because of slower foreign demand growth and the higher Canadian dollar. The economy continues to create net new employment, especially in services, despite job losses in resource-intensive regions. In this context, household spending continues to expand moderately. While business investment is still shrinking due to sizeable declines in the energy sector, it is expected to turn positive later this year. The complex adjustment figures importantly in the Bank’s annual review of the economy’s potential, which has resulted in a lower estimated range for potential output growth.

The combined effect of all of these global and domestic developments would have been a modest downgrade of the Bank’s outlook. However, the fiscal measures announced in the March federal budget will have a notable positive impact on GDP. The Bank now projects real GDP growth of 1.7 per cent in 2016, 2.3 per cent in 2017 and 2.0 per cent in 2018. This new growth profile, combined with the revised estimate for potential, suggests the output gap could close somewhat earlier than the Bank had anticipated in January, likely in the second half of 2017.

Inflation in Canada continues to track largely as the Bank anticipated. Total CPI inflation is below the 2 per cent target and will likely ease further before returning to 2 per cent as the effects of exchange rate pass-through and lower consumer energy prices unwind and the economy’s excess capacity diminishes. Measures of core inflation are close to 2 per cent and continue to reflect the offsetting influences of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity.

Overall, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, in part due to regional shifts in activity associated with the structural adjustment underway in Canada’s economy. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

Provided by: Bank of Canada - www.bankofcanada.ca

News Release: April 4, 2016

MARCH SEES HIGHEST MONTHLY SALES ON RECORD FOR FRASER VALLEY

SURREY, BC – Fraser Valley real estate hit a historical high in March, setting the record for sales processed in one month since the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s (FVREB) inception in 1921. .

In March, the FVREB processed 3,006 sales on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), an increase of 62 per cent compared to March 2015 and 26 per cent more then was processed in February. The previous record of 2,720 processed sales was set in March of 1991.

Charles Wiebe, President of the Board, said of this month’s statistics, “This market is uncharted territory for Fraser Valley real estate. It’s typical for spring to see a jump in activity; however, March came and went at a break-neck, record-setting pace. I’ve never seen anything like it.”

“While I’m certainly encouraged that so many are finding their way to owning a home in the Fraser Valley, I know that it can also be challenging for first-time homebuyers and those looking to transition. Talk to a local REALTOR®, and discuss what you want and what’s possible for you. We can help you get there.”

The Board received 4,057 new listings in March, an increase of 31 per cent compared to March of last year, and a 24 per cent increase from February. The total active inventory for March was 5,485, down 33 per cent from last year’s 8,193 active listings.

Wiebe commented, “This is typically a busy time of year to buy and sell real estate, and those seeking homes are hungry to purchase. Unfortunately, inventory is struggling to keep up. With that said, if you’re thinking of selling your home, I encourage you to talk to a REALTOR® and consider your current opportunities. The market is in your favor.”

Across Fraser Valley, the average number of days to sell a single family detached home in March 2016 was 17 days, compared to 43 days in March 2015.

The MLS® HPI benchmark price of a Fraser Valley single family detached home in February was $741,000, an increase of 26 per cent compared to March 2015 when it was $588,500.

In March, the benchmark price of townhouses was $344,300, an increase of 14.9 per cent compared to $299,700 in March 2015. The benchmark price of apartments also increased year-over-year by 13.8 per cent, going from $190,800 in March 2015 to $217,200 in March 2016.

Stats package provided by the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. For a full package click here: http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package%20201603.pdf

News Release: March 2, 2016

ANOTHER RECORD-SETTING MONTH FOR FRASER VALLEY REAL ESTATE 

SURREY, BC – For the second time in as many months, Fraser Valley real estate saw record-setting monthly sales.

In February, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 2,387 sales on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), an increase of 79 per cent compared to February 2015 and 78 per cent more then was processed in January. To give a historical perspective, sales in February were 46 per cent over the 10-year average for that month; and, 4 per cent higher than the previous record of 1,948 sales in February 1992.

Charles Wiebe, President of the Board said of this month’s record numbers, “In my twenty-five years of real estate, I have never seen such consistent demand for housing in the Fraser Valley.”

“While it’s certainly encouraging to see such confidence in our region, the intense demand has created a more complex market for buyers. For certain property types, prices have increased and selection is scarce. If you find yourself struggling in your search, consult a professional. We know the market and we’re here to help you.”

The Board received 3,283 new listings in February, an increase of 26 per cent compared to February of last year, and another record high for February. The total active inventory for February was 5,127, down 35 per cent from last year’s 7,864 active listings.

Wiebe explained, “Inventory is moving fast, so it’s critical that buyers know what they most want in a home and neighborhood, and be open to considering new areas. The Valley features a wide range of diverse housing options, with many areas still very affordable, so talk to your REALTOR® who will help carve a path to suit your needs.”

Across Fraser Valley, the average number of days to sell a single family detached home in February 2016 was 21 days, compared to 41 days in February 2015.

The MLS® HPI benchmark price of a Fraser Valley single family detached home in February was $714,000, an increase of 23 per cent compared to February 2015 when it was $581,400.

In February, the benchmark price of townhouses was $337,300, an increase of 13.5 per cent compared to $297,200 in February 2015. The benchmark price of apartments also increased year-over-year by 11.2 per cent, going from $189,700 in February 2015 to $211,000 in February 2016.

Stats provided by the Fraser Real Estate Board. For a full package click here:
http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package%20201602.pdf

Will 2016 be a repeater?

Last year, Fraser Valley REALTORS® experienced the best year in home sales in a decade. Will this year be as good?

In short, no because it's hard to top near record-breaking two years in a row; however, according to the experts, 2016 will be another strong year for Fraser Valley's housing market. This year's market is expected to echo how sales in 2006 and 2007 gradually decreased from 2005's all-time sales high.

In a monthly statistics conference call between FVREB and REBGV officers, BCREA's Chief Economist, Cameron Muir, pointed out that markets historically do not shift quickly, or dramatically "pending an economic shock such as a significant decrease in interest rates."

He has forecast that Fraser Valley's residential MLS® sales will decrease by 8.3 per cent in 2016 compared to 2015, which would result in the Board posting 18,500 sales in total (residential and commercial combined) this year – still 14 per cent higher than the ten-year average.

At Vancouver's CMHC Housing Outlook Conference in November, Market Analyst Richard Sam's forecast echoed BCREA's projecting the same decrease in sales – 8.3 per cent – for the Fraser Valley this year compared to last. Interestingly, CMHC anticipates a 'softer landing' for home sales in the Abbotsford-Mission Central Metropolitan Area (CMA) and is forecasting a decrease of only 2.4 per cent in 2016, so almost as strong a year as last year for our members serving clients further out in the Valley.

One reason for continued strength in sales in Abbotsford/Mission is likely affordability. As FVREB President Jorda Maisey explained to reporters in the Board's December statistics release, "The Fraser Valley has always appealed to consumers looking for competitive pricing and a diverse range of housing options.

"Last year shows that consumers recognize the long-term value of property ownership in the Fraser Valley, particularly valuing the single family home, which they recognize is becoming a limited commodity. Sales of single family detached increased across all of our communities, in some instances more than doubling 2014's sales."

In 2015, the strong demand in our region – and lack of competitively priced inventory – for single family detached homes had a clear impact on prices. In December 2015, MLS® Home Price Index Benchmark prices were up an astounding 17.3 per cent compared to December 2014. Year-over-year, average prices for FVREB detached homes increased by 12.1 per cent. Contrast that to BC's rate of inflation last year, which hovered around 1 per cent.

Economists predict that even though MLS® sales will dip this year, demand for single family homes will remain robust, which will continue to put upward pressure on prices. Muir forecasts the average MLS® price of single family homes in the Fraser Valley will increase by 4.8 per cent in 2016; townhome prices will increase by 3.5 per cent and apartments, 2.6 per cent.

BCREA will release its First Quarter 2016 Housing Forecast Update in February. To view last year's Fourth Quarter forecast, head to BCREA's Economics page on REALTOR® Link and click on Housing Forecast.

News Release: February 2, 2016

NEW YEAR BRINGS STRONGEST JANUARY ON RECORD

SURREY, BC – Fraser Valley’s real estate market showed no signs of slowing down, producing the strongest sales for January on record.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,338 sales on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in January, an increase of 57 per cent compared to January 2015 and 13 per cent fewer then were processed in December. Sales in January ranked at the top for the last ten years coming in 57 per cent over the 10-year average, and 5 per cent higher than the previous record of 1,270 sales in January 1992.

Jorda Maisey, President of the Board said, “Typically, we see January numbers slow down post-holiday season, but so far demand for Fraser Valley homes hasn’t let up. Homebuyers are reluctant to wait when the market is moving this fast.”

“There are a number of factors we can attribute this jump to, but most importantly, we’re seeing that the demand for owning a home continues to rise and inventory is struggling to keep up. Job creation and a strong BC economy are drawing more people to our region; and despite rising prices in some areas, many communities within the Fraser Valley remain affordable.”

The Board received 2,510 new listings in January, a decrease of 8 per cent compared to January of last year. The total active inventory for January was 4,790, down 34 per cent from last year’s 7,307 active listings.

Maisey explained, “Homeowners may be reluctant to sell because they love their home and where they live. However, for those looking to enter the market and perhaps are waiting for spring, we suggest you and your REALTOR® start planning now. There are a lot of people out there who will want your home.”

Across Fraser Valley, the average number of days to sell a single family detached home in January 2016 was 33 days, compared to 55 days in January 2015.

The MLS® HPI benchmark price of a Fraser Valley single family detached home in January was $691,100, an increase of 20.9 per cent compared to January 2015 when it was $571,700.

In January, the benchmark price of townhouses was $334,400, an increase of 13.8 per cent compared to $293,800 in January 2015. The benchmark price of apartments also increased year-over-year by 7.8 per cent, going from $189,500 in January 2015 to $204,300 in January 2016.

Stats provided by the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board for a full package click here: 
http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package%20201601.pdf